Set the free shipping threshold from your order distribution, not a round number
Set the threshold from representative post-discount order economics. Judge it on total contribution and conversion, with margin per order as a guardrail.
Skip this if new-brand-launcher at pre-launch: there is no order distribution to read. Launch with a stated flat rate or a threshold borrowed from your unit economics, and revisit once representative order history exists
A free-shipping threshold changes shopper cost and store economics at the same time. AOV alone cannot tell you whether the threshold creates profitable orders or subsidizes orders that were already going to qualify.
The decision: model candidate thresholds from representative post-discount order economics, then judge the result on total contribution and conversion. Use contribution margin per order as a guardrail, not the outcome by itself.
The rest of this lesson is available once the Atlas is unlocked.